Bundesliga is finally back, aand we got lots of bets this round.
We start with the Friday Night Match between Freiburg and Bayern, where the +1,75 line on the home-side looks interesting. As we all know, Bayern can win 4-0 if they want, but they haven’t really dominated too many of their away-matches this season, and never won by 3 goals or more. So at worst, this should be half a loss according to stats, and Freiburg are a very good home-team as well so it’s worth a shot with the +1,75 bet.
Schalke vs Ingolstadt looks like a interesting match, and my biggest bet of the round is Schalke -0,75 @ 2,10. Was considering the -1 bet instead as Schalke is a good counter-team, but either way they should win this match easily. Had some trouble prior to the break, but are a good home-team. Also looks fairly over, and the Over 2,25 line looks way too low.
Werder vs Dortmund is another match that promises goals, and although the 3,25 sounds high, I still wanna back it with a medium bet as anything but a goal-fest would be very surprising here. Dortmund are 3,88 away, while Werder are 3,00 at home, so either way it holds value. Odds on Dortmund also a bit too low, and I find some value in Werder 1×2 even though I still expect Dortmund to win.
HSV +0,75 away against Wolfsburg looks good if we look at form and performance so far. Wosburg sold Draxler recently as well, but have signed Malli from Mainz. HSV are 3-2-1 on their last 6, and I think their chances of more points are quite good here even though Wolfsburg won their last 2 matches.
Hoffenheim are still unbeaten, and I can’t really see how Augsburg can do anything about that. Don’t expect them to be the team that ends Hoffenheim’s run, but they can a tough team to beat and this match could easily end a draw. Still, I find value in the DNB on the away-side here.
Darmstadt and Mgladbach are both in horrible form, and its hard to back any of the teams these days, which is why I find the +0,5 line on the home-side to be very generous. Darmstadt got 8 straight losses, but all their 8 points so far this season have come at home. And Mgladbach only got 1 point on their 7 away-matches this season, so why they can be such a big favorite here is beyond me. Also got the 1×2, as well as an Over 2,25 bet as the total seems too low.
RB Leipzig lost 2 out of their last 3 matches, and might be feelign the pressure a bit now. E Frankfurt are still in a 4th place, and have not been an easy team to beat this season. All their 3 losses were 1-goal defeats, so the +1 line looks very nice here. Can easily see them get away with a point here.
Leverkusen vs Hertha is another very interesting match. Hard to justify the odds on Leverkusen here, as Hertha has been the better team among them this season. Not a fantastic away-team by any chance, but can see them get away with something as Leverkusen hasn’t exactly been hitting on all sylinders this season. Got both the +0,75 and the 1×2 just in case. Also find great value in the over 2,5.
At last, the Over 2,5 line in Mainz vs Köln also looks ridiculously low. Mainz are 4,57 at home this season, and only 1 of their home-matches this season have gone under 2,5. They lost Malli recently, which is a blow, but still think we’ll see plenty of goals in this one!
High (10 units):
Schalke -0,75 @ 2,10
High (7,5 units):
Schalke – Ingolstadt Over 2,25 @ 1,86
Werder – Dortmund Over 3,25 @1,95
Leverkusen – Hertha Over 2,5 @ 2,08
Mainz – Köln Over 2,5 @ 2,05
Darmstadt +0,5 @ 1,99
Medium (5 units):
Freiburg +1,75 @1,93
HSV +0,75 @ 1,75
Hoffenheim DNB @1,90
E Frankfurt +1 @1,70
Hertha +0,75 @2,02
Darmstadt – Mgladbach Over 2,25 @1,93
Small (2,5 units):
Werder 1×2 @5,99
Darmstadt 1×2 @4,41
Hertha 1×2 @6,10