We start off with Friday’s match between Sydney FC vs Adelaide where the total seems way too high, as Sydney are only 2,29 at home and Adelaide are 2,29 away. Adelaide only scores 0,57 goals on average per game in their away-matches, and against a very strong Sydney-defence I think they will struggle to come to chances. Sydney’s last 4 home-matches have all gone under 2,5, and a low Under 3 bet holds good value here I think.
Perth and M Victory are the 2 most over-teams in the league this tear, with Perth averaging 3,74 overall and M Victory 3,54. We should be in for quite the goalfest here then. However, M Victory are a lot more over at home than away, where they “only” average 2,71, but either way this match looks very over and I expect atleast 3 goals.
Wellington have improved alot since they changed their coach, and they have 2 straight home-wins in a row. The 3-0 win vs M Victory midweek was particularly impressive, and they now got 4-2-0 on their last 6 at home. Brisbane have 3 straight losses, and seems a bit out of it. They have only won 2 away-matches all season, and I find great value on the home-side here.
The last match of the round is W Sydney vs Newcastle. W Sydney are still without a home-win this season, and have played 6 games in a row without winning. On paper they might be a much better team than Newcastle, but they are not showing it, and the +0,75 line on the away-side here holds great value. Newcastle are in decent form too with 3-2-1 on their last 6, and earlier in the season they managed a 2-2 draw in the same fixture. The 1×2 also looks nice.
Wellington DNB @ 1,91
Medium (5 units):
Sydney FC – Adelaide Under 3 @1,76
Perth – MVictory Over 3 @1,85
Newcastle +0,75 @ 1,85
Small (2,5 units):
Newcastle 1×2 @ 4,47