We start with the Friday Night Match, where Mainz play hosts to Bayern. Bayern have not been their usual self lately with below par performances both in the league and in CL, and having just 4 wins in their last 7 league-matches is very rare for a team like Bayern. They have lost their last 2 away-matches vd Dortmund and Rostov, and meet a Mainz-side who take most of their points at home here. mainz have 3-1-1 at home so far this season, but both the 4-4 draw vs Hoffenheim and 2-3 loss vs Leverkusen were close calls and matches Mainz just as well could have won.
They are a strong home-team in other words, and I think their chances of an upset win here is relatively big, and worth a shot at an odds of 11,58. This match also looks extremely over, with Mainz likely to both score and concede as they almost always do. They average 4,80 at home this season, and although Bayern are only 2,40 away I think we’ll see atleast 3 goals in this one.
Dortmund suffered an idiotic loss vs E Frankfurt last round away, but got what they deserved as they didnt play a good game. Need a win here to get back on track, and meet a Mgladbach-side who are really out of it and without a win on their last 7 league-matches. Looks like a sure home-win, and the -1 bet line holds great value for me.
Leverkusen vs Freiburg is another interesting match that I think we will see a lot of goals in. Leverkusen are 3,17 at home, and their last 6 matches have all had 3 goals or more in them. Freiburg are as mich as 3,83 away, and only 1 out of their first 12 matches this season have gone under 2,5, so the Over 3 line looks very nice.
The last big bet of the round is Werder DNB at home vs Ingolstadt. They are not in the best of form, but the 2-2 draw away vs rivals HSV last round probably gave them a boost, and they beat strong teams like Wolfsburg and Leverkusen at home earlier in the season.
Ingolstadt have improved lately, and won their last match on the road, but don’t really rate them and think they will be in for a struggle here. The line on this match seems a bit too high as Ingolstadt are only 2,33 away and I doubt they will score. However, All of Werder’s 12 matches this season have gone over 2,5, so its a bit risky but I still find some value in the Under 2,75.
In Augsburg vs E Frankfurt on the other hand, the line seems awfully low. As mentioned before, an Over 2 line in Bundesliga is rare and although E Frankfurt are only 1,67 away this season and Augsburg 2,17 at home I still find decent value in it.
I also have a small under in Hoffenheim vs Köln and Darmstadt vs HSV, mainly based on value although they may not necessarily seems like the most typical under-matches.
In Wolfsburg vs Hertha I think we can see some goals, especially with Wolfsburg slowly starting scoring goals again. They always seems to create big chances, and it’s only a matter of time before the likes of Gomez and Draxler start hitting the back of the net at a more frequent ratio.
High (7,5 units):
Mainz – Bayern Over 3 @1,88
Dortmund -1 @ 1,82
Leverkusen – Freiburg Over 3 @ 1,96
Werder DNB @1,76
Medium (5 units):
Werder – Ingolstadt Under 2,75 @ 1,78
Augsburg – E Frankfurt Over 2 @ 1,91
Small (2,5 units):
Mainz 1×2 @11,58
Wolfsburg – Hertha Over 2,25 @ 2,01
Hoffenheim – Köln Under 2,75 @ 1,89
Darmstadt – HSV Under 2,5 @1,83