We start off with Friday’s match between Mariners and Perth, where the total seems way too high. Mariners got a rather poor defence, but both their 2 matches at home this season have gone under 2,5. They have also increased their defence lately, and only conceded 6 goals in their last 5 matches compared to 7 on their first 2.
Perth on the other hand have been involved in a lot of high-scoring matches this season, and only 1 game have gone under 2,5, so it’s a case of under vs over here. I think we’ll see a more defensive-minded approach by them here though, and think the tempo will be in general quite low. With Perth having lost 2 out of their 3 away-matches so far and not being known as a particularly strong away-team, I also find value in Mariners 1×2.
Western Sydney vs Brisbane also look to have a too high total. Only 2 out of Brisbane’s 7 matches so far have gone Over 2,5 and I think they will as in most of their away-matches stick to a defensive game-plan here. Can easily see it end a 1-1 draw, and the 2,75 line holds decent under-value.
M Victory vs Newcastle on the other hand, looks very over, and I expect a high-scoring home-win there. Victory have been scoring goals for fun in their last 2 home-matches, and I don’t really rate Newcastle here, so anything but a comfortable win for the home-team will surprise me. There is good value both on the Over and Victory -1 bet.
At last, I also have Adelaide 1×2 away against Sydney FC. Sydney FC are still unbeaten, but they were near a loss against both M Victory and Brisbane. They also got the cupfinal coming up on Wednesday, so might be that they will have that match on the back of their minds too. And Adelaide is bound to get their first win sooner or later, as they still got a strong team.
High (7,5 units):
Melbourne Victory – Newcastle OVer 3 @ 2,14
Medium (5 units):
Mariners – Perth Under 3 @1,95
Western Sydney – Brisbane Under 2,75 @ 1,94
Melbourne Victory -1 @1,83
Small (2,5 units):
Mariners 1×2 @3,81
Adelaide 1×2 @6,05