Bundesliga R11 Betting Previews

Lots of bets in Bundesliga this weekend, and we start off with Friday’s match, where Leverkusen hosts an in-form RB Leipzig side.RBL are yet to lose, and currently got 5 straight wins, so it might be a bit bold to go against them here, but Leverkusen are usually a very solid home-team, and I still rate them as the better team here despite RBL’s strong start. Also got potential for goals with Leverkusen averaging 2,80 at home and RBL 2,60 away, so got in addition a small Over 2,5 bet.

Mainz vs Freiburg looks like a very interesting match, and both teams have that in common that they are stronger at home than away. Mainz have 2 straight home-wins, and would with a bit of luck also won their first 2 home-games vs Hoffenheim and Leverkusen. Freiburg on the other hand have lost 4 out of their 5 away-matches, so don’t rate their chances too highly here. Also looks extremely over, with  Mainz being 4,50 at home and Freiburg 3,40 away, so Over 2,75 is one of my biggest bets of the round.

Very surprised to see a Over 2 line in Darmstadt vs Ingolstadt. Neither of the teams score too many goals, but considering how poor the teams are at defending the Over 2 line still looks ridiculously low.   At worst I expect a push on the Over 2, and I also have a rather big pref on Darmstadt. They are actually quite good at home, and have taken all their points so far there with  2-2-1 so far.

The biggest match of the round is obviously Dortmund vs Bayern. Bayern havent been themselves lately and they have only won 2 out of their last 5 league-matches, and also struggled a bit in CL. Dortmund’s injury-situation is a lot better now, and I think we’ll see a relatively strong lineup from the home-side here and this match should be a lot more evenly priced than what the odds suggests.  I got both the +0,5 and 1×2 on the home-side, as well as a Over 2,5 bet.

Mgladbach are in poor form and havent even scored for 5 league-matches now.  They are still unbeaten at home though with 3-2-0 overall, and if we look away from the strange 0-0 draw vs E Frankfurt a couple of weeks ago they have dominated all their home-matches so far. Köln on the other hand have 2 straight away-losses, and have only won 1 away-game all season which came early vs a Schalke-side who at at that time were losing to everyone.  So there is decent value in the -0,25 bet on the home-side here I think, despite their poor form.

Augsburg vs Hertha is another match where the total seems way too low.  Augsburg are 2,60 at home this season while Hertha are 2,80  away, so a Over 2 line is therefore way too low.  I also have Hertha DNB as I think they deserve to atleast be seen as small favorites here as Augsburg seems a bit out of it.

At last I also have Under 3 in Hoffenheim vs HSV.   Might be a bit risky as both teams have have been involved in some high-scoring matches earlier in the season, but at home Hoffenheim averages only 2,20, and HSV are 2,00 away.  HSV are unlikely to score here as well, as they have only scored a single goal away all season, which was in R2.

High (10 units):

Mainz – Freiburg Over 2,75 @ 2,06
Darmstadt – Ingolstadt Over 2 @ 1,81

High (7,5 units):

Dortmund +0,5 @ 1,85

Medium (5 units):

Leverkusen -0,25 @ 2,01
Mgladbach -0,25 @ 1,92
Mainz -0,25 @ 1,88
Darmstadt DNB @ 2,16
Werder DNB @ 2,05

Augsburg – Hertha Over 2 @ 1,85
Dortmund – Bayern Over 2,5 @ 1,87
Hoffenheim – HSV Under 3 @1,93

Small (2,5 units):

Leverkusen – RB Leipzig Over 2,5 @ 1,94
Hertha DNB @ 2,00
Dortmund 1×2 @3,70

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