4 very good rounds in a row now in A-League, and hope for more profit this weekend.
Western Sydney have had a rough start to their season and have so far only picked up a single win. Failed to win any of their home-matches, despite meeting weak teams like Newcastle and Mariners. They meet a Melbourne City team here who got 4-0-2 so far, and their 2 losses came against rather strong teams like Perth and Brisbane. Based on performances so far this season they should be a big favorite here, and I find value in the DNB @1,87 on them even though W Sydney’s form is bound to turn around sooner or later.
Perth vs Adelaide looks like a potential goal-fest, and Perth have averaged as high as 4,17 overall this season, with 5 of their 6 matches having gone over 2,5. They both concede and score a ton of goals, and don’t think it will be any different here. Cause Adelaide have both scored and conceded in all their matches so far, and although they “only” average 2,63 I still find very good value in the over here, and have it as one of the biggest bets of the round.
Brisbane vs Sydney FC looks like the biggest match of the round, and although run-away leaders Sydney FC have looked fantastic so far this season I think we could possibly see their first loss here. Brisbane is a very strong home-team, and have already met good teams like M Victory, M City and Perth and gotten away with 7 out of 9 points. Sydney FC also showed in their matches vs M Victory and Wellington that they are not as dominant as some of their other results suggests, and I’m therefore backing Brisbane with a small DNB bet.
The most interesting match betting-wise is for me the F3 derby Newcastle – Mariners. Both teams have a leaky defence, so backing a heavy under can of course be risky, but 6 out of the last 8 meetings between these 2 rivals have gone under,and to be fair, neither of them are that strong offensively. Could easily imagine seeing another game where the teams will be more focused on avoiding defeat than anything else, and then the under automatically holds good value. Also backing Mariners with a +0,5 bet as Newcastle have now gone 4 matches in a row without winning.
High (7,5 units):
Perth – Adelaide Over 2,75 @ 1,86
Newcastle – Mariners Under 3 @1,80
Medium (5 units):
Mariners +0,5 @ 1,91
Small (2,5 units):
Melbourne City DNB @1,87
Brisbane DNB @ 2,09