Final round of Stage 2 today, and there are still teams with lots to play for at both ends. In games like this a lot of the value is obviously in live-betting, but I still got some positions pre-game.
It is a 100% must-win for Kobe away vs Kashima, and with 7 wins on their last 9 their overall form is still great even though they lost their last away-match. Kashima got nothing to play for, and their form in the 2nd stage have been atrocious compared to in Stage 1, and they currently got 3 straight defeats. They have constantly been made too big favorites by the bookies for several months now, and should be great value on Kobe to win this match. I would go as far to say they should be favorites, and to then get 4,21 is insane.
Albirex have lost 6 out of their last 7 matches, and have looked pretty hopeless lately. Had a poor referee ruining their chances vs Gamba last round though, which means they are without 2 key players here. Hiroshima have not been in the best of form lately, but showed class by winning 4-1 last round so confidence should be high. They also won 3 out of their last 5 away-matches, and with a possible must-win situation as well there is great value on the away-side here.
In order to get 2nd place Gamba need to win by 3 goals or more vs Kawasaki away, and also hope that Kobe doesnt win their match. Its highly unlikely, but not impossible, and think we will see an offensive-minded Gamba-side here. Kawasaki were duly outplayed by Kashima last round for long periods, but still came out on top with a narrow win. They are already qualified for the championship, but can still clinch 1st place overall, which is something they have never achieved before. For that only a win is good enough though, so doubt this match will end a draw. Therefore value is automatically on the underdog, and I’m backing Gamba with a medium 1×2 bet.
Nagoya vs Shonan also looks very interesting, and although Nagoya have improved a lot with 4-2-2 on their last 8 matches, they still showed that they can still mess it up pretty badly, like in the 0-3 loss last round. Shonan already relegated, but won for the first time in months last round at home vs Kofu. I think Shonan have played a lot better than what their position reflects at times this season, and they do got quality in their team. With the current status and close to must-win for Nagoya I’m not ruling out an upset here.
Urawa are flying high with 6 straight wins, and they have been absolutely fantastic lately. Final home-game here, so expect them to put on a show. They average 3,19 at home, and Marinos are 2,94 away, so the Over 3 line holds good value. Also close to taking home, but nothing pre.
Nothing to play for anymore for neither Omiya or Tokyo, but Omiya have been one of the best teams in the league lately. They got 7-3-0 on their last 10, and although they now are finally out of the race for top 2 I still wanna back them here with a -0,25 bet. Tokyo are of course never an easy opponent, and with 3 straight wins their form is also good, but still find value on the home-team here.
Kofu vs Sagan is a tricky game, but if results goes against them also Kofu might find themselves in a must-win situation. They are also 2,69 at home this season, so I find value in the O2,25 line here even though this match doesn1t exactly strike me as too over-ish.
At last, I also have a small 1×2 bet on Avispa at home vs Reysol. Reysol obviously the better team, but 2 straight losses now and nothing left to play for means they might not be too interested here. Avispa would love to finish off with a win in their final match at home, so a small stake there seems worthwhile.
High (7,5 units):
Kobe 1×2 @ 4,21
Hiroshima 1×2 @ 2,52
Medium (5 units):
Gamba 1×2 @ 4,17
Shonan 1×2 @ 6,27
Urawa – Marinos Over 3 @ 2,07
Omiya -0,25 @ 1,89
Small (2,5 units):
Kofu – Sagan Over 2,25 @ 1,83
Avispa 1×2 @ 4,99