Just 3 more rounds to go in J1, and we got lots of interesting matches coming up.
Omiya vs Shonan is perhaps the most interesting match as it is 100% must-win for both teams. Omiya are still fighting for a 2nd place in the 2nd stage of the Championship and their form is good with 5-3-0 on their last 8. Shonan need to win all their remaining matches to still have a theoretical chance of surviving in J1, but are without a win for 12 matches now. Should be great value in Omiya here, as unlike earlier in the season when they were losing despite playing well, Shonan have looked horrible the last few weeks. Also considered the over,but Shonan haven’t scored a single goal in 4 matches now.
Reysol vs Sagan is another interesting match, with Reysol like Omiya chasing 2nd place. They are in great form with 4-2-0 on their last 6, and meet a Sagan-side here with nothing to play for. They are also playing bad these days, and have just picked up 1 point in their last 4 matches so there is great value on the home-side here.
The 3rd big bet for me is Over 2,5 in Marinos vs Gamba. Close to must-win for both teams, or atleast not far from it, so at late 1-1 we can expect both teams going hard for the win. 4 out of Marinos’ last 5 matches have gone over, and all of Gamba’s 5 last matches as well.
Vissel Kobe got 6-1-0 on their last 7 matches and are the form-team no.1 in the league now. Holds 2nd place in the 2nd stage, and should be big favorites here away vs a Vegalta-side who got nothing to play for. Vegalta won last round, but prior to that they had 5 matches in a row without a win so their general form is bad. Both teams are fairly weakened, but Kobe got a stronger squad so should be advantage for them.
Tokyo vs Kashima is not the most interesting match as it is between 2 teams with little to play for. Kashima not in the best of form, and seems to vary alot from one match to another these days. Tokyo have only lost 1 out of their last 6 matches, and that was against 1st placed Urawa, so a medium-sized bet on Tokyo at +0,25 holds good value here.
Albirex only averages 1,87 at home, and meet a Urawa-side who averages 2,13 away here. Urawa have been free-scoring lately though with 10 goals in their last 3 matches, but can’t see Albirex score here and can easily imagine a 0-1/0-2 away win, so the Under 2,75 holds decent value.
Last, I also back Over 2,25 in Avispa vs Kofu. Avispa are already relegated, and with nothing to lose teams often tends to take more chances and just play “to have fun”. Kofu on the other hand are in big need of points, and this is a match they most likely have to win. Avisp aare 2,80 at home, and Kofu 2,80 away, so the 2,25 line holds in any case great value.
High (7,5 units):
Omiya -0,5 @ 1,99
Reysol -0,5 @ 1,98
Marinos – Gamba Over 2,5 @ 1,98
Medium (5 units):
Kobe -0,25 @ 1,93
Tokyo +0,25 @1,98
Albirex – Urawa Under 2,75 @ 1,96
Avispa – Kofu Over 2,25 @ 2,03