5 rounds in a row with profit now in J2, and hope to continue that trend here.
I find it hard to understand why Renofa have been made such big favorites at home vs Tokushima. They got 3 straight losses and are without a win for 8 matches, and have in general been one of the worst teams in the league in the latter half of the season. Tokushima varies a bit as well, but they have only lost 1 out of their last 4 away-matches, and in general picks up a lot more points than the hosts here. The total as well looks very wrong, which is often the case with Renofa these days. They were extremely over in the beginning of the season, and still averages 2,80 goals per game, but 6 out of their last 8 matches have gone under 2,5 , and they in general score very few goals at the moment. So away+under looks like a good combination here.
The other match that sticks out to me is Thespa vs Nagasaki. Thespa are unbeaten on their last 5 home-matches, and in their last 9 they have only lost twice at home. And those 2 losses came against top-teams Cerezo and Consadole. They are not a bad team, and at the moment I rate them as a better team than the visitors. Nagasaki are without a win for 9 straight matches, and this is another example where the price seems to be based on performances earlier in the season. The over also looks very interesting, mainly because Thespa averages 2,71 at home.
Mito vs Yokohama also promises goals I think. Mito are 2,29 at home and Yokohama are 2,65 away, so a over 2 line there holds good value. Especially considering Yokohama are in a near must-win situation if they still want to have a chance at going into the top 6. That is also why I’m backing Yokohama with a 1×2 bet as a draw isnt worth that much for them right now.
Kyoto vs Gifu is another match where I think we’ll see goals. Kyoto are only 1,78 at home, and concedes very few goals, but my view on the over here is mainly based on their opponent who are 3,17 away. Gifu’s 4 last matches have gone over 2,5, and their last 10 matches have all had 2 goals or more, so a 2,25 bet should at worst be half a loss.
Ehime vs Consadole however, looks extremely under, and backing that with a medium bet. Ehime are 1,72 at home, and usually adopts a very defensive strategy when they meet good teams ( 0-0 vs Cerezo, Matsumoto and Shimizu, and 1-1 in the away fixture vs Consadole). And Consadole are only 1,41 away, and concedes as little as 0,53 goals per game away which is a record low. And with 1 point being more than good enough for Consadole here, I can easily see this game ends a scoreless draw, or with a narrow win for one of the sides.
Also have a lot of 1×2 bets this round, and starts with Fagiano at home vs Cerezo. Cerezo are the best away-team in the league, but meet a strong side in Fagiano here who got 6-4-1 on their last 11 matches. Looks like an evenly contested match that can swing both ways I think, so there is good value in the home-bet.
Giravanz have improved lately playwise, but still don’t pick up too many points. So they are in big need of a win here I think. Especially since Kamatamare are just 5 points ahead of them, and are in need of points themselves. I think this match should be priced more evenly than what is the case here. I still see Giravanz as the stronger team, but the away-bet holds some decent value.
Machida are in poor form with just 2 wins in their last 11 matches, and meet a tricky side here. Roasso haven’t lost in 4 matches, and concedes very few goals at the moment. With Machida being in a near must-win situation there is decent value on the 1×2 bet for the away-side I think.
Finally, I’m also talking a small 1×2 bet on Zweigen at home vs Shimizu. Zweigen have won their last 2 home-matches, and got a feeling Shimizu can mess it up against pretty much any team. Their form is great though, but with both teams in need of points it’s worth a shot.
High (7,5 units):
Tokushima +0,25 @ 1,98
Thespa DNB @ 2,10
Medium (5 units):
Kyoto – Gifu Over 2,25 @ 1,96
Mito – Yokohama Over 2 @ 1,91
Renofa – Tokushima Under 2,5 @ 1,84
Ehime – Consadole Under 2 @1,89
Thespa – Nagasaki Over 2 @ 1,85
Small (2,5 units):
Yokohama 1×2 @ 3,33
Small (1,5 units):
Fagiano 1×2 @4,02
Kamatamare 1×2 @3,82
Roasso 1×2 @4,98
Zweigen 1×2 @4,78