Dortmund and Hertha Berlin kicks off R7 of the Bundesliga, but with the prices at hand there is no value on that game.
So instead I look to Saturday’s games, and particularly M’Gladbach at home vs HSV. Everyone should by now know how good Mgladbach is at home, and although they got CL coming up next week they should be a massive favorite here. HSV have lost all their away-matches so far, and a -0,75 line looks like a joke here. If they are up to a good start I might add something live as well as that is by far the best bet of the week.
Hoffenheim – Freiburg also looks very wrongly priced, with Hoffenheim being unbeaten so far this season and having 2 nice wins in a row. Freiburg have not had a bad start, but they were outplayed in and lost all 3 away-games so far this season. A -0,25 bet on Hoffenheim therefore looks a very good deal, as I doubt Freiburg will get away with anything here.
Werder vs Leverkusen is the 3rd match sticks out, and in my opinion there is great value on the home-side. Leverkusen have never been a particular good away-team, and have a very important CL-game at home vs Tottenham coming up already on Tuesday. After a poor start Werder have improved vastly as well the last couple of matches, and think they got a very good chance at points here, and even the win. It also looks very over, so I’m also backing the Over 3 with a medium bet.
Köln have had a very strong start to the season, and are actually still unbeaten. This despite meeting good teams like Wolfsburg, Schalke and Bayern all away. Ingolstadt on the other hand have only picked up 1 point, and got 5 straight defeats. Expect a very one-sided game so backing Köln with a -0,75 bet. Also got potential for goals, and a 2,25 line is in any case very low in Bundesliga.
High (10 units):
Mgladbach -0,75 @1,91
Hoffenheim -0,25 @1,88
High (7,5 units):
Werder +0,75 @ 1,98
Medium (5 units):
Köln -0,75 @ 2,06
Werder – Leverkusen Over 3 @ 2,03
Small (2,5 units):
Köln – Ingolstadt Over 2,25 @ 1,93
Small (1,5 units):
Werder 1×2 @4,85