A-League is finally back, and it starts off with a bang as Brisbane hosts Melbourne Victory for the Friday Night Game. Brisbane were by far the best home-team in the league last season, and won 11 out of 14 home-games, so I’m backing them here with a -0,25 bet with one of this round’s biggest stakes. This match also promises goals, so I’m also on the Over 2,75-line with a medium-sized bet. Rojas is out for Victory which is not good for the overs, but it strengthen’s Brisbane’s chances of the win.
Next up is Wellington vs Melbourne City, which is another game that promises to be a goal-fest. Rather high line, but still got value so I’m taking a Over 3 bet there. Can’t see a weakened Phoenix-defence withstand City’s attacking force, and also fancy the away-win but unfortunately no value there.
The Sydney-derby is the biggest match of the round, and although it has been Western Sydney who have seen most success in recent years the head-to-head record clearly favours Sydney FC. They are unbeaten in their last 7 matches against W Sydney, and with the home-side having more players busy with NT-duties as well as their best DF in Topor Stanley suspended I’m backing the away-side with a small bet.
Perth had a great finish to last season, and have also looked good in the pre-season matches. They are clearly stronger than Mariners, who I expect to take the wooden spoon this year as well. A -1 bet here seems golden, as I can’t see anything but a home-win here.
Newcastle vs Adelaide is the last match of the round, and it is a bit tricky. Adelaide had the best away-record in the league last season, and should be a lot better here, but the price is not good enough for me to back it. Doesn’t look like a particular over-match either, and got decent value on under 2,75.
High (7,5 units):
Brisbane -0,25 @2,05
Perth -1 @1,91
Medium (5 units):
Brisbane – MVictory Over 2,75 @1,92
Wellington – MCity Over 3 @ 1,80
Small (2,5 units):
Sydney FC DNB @ 1,96
Newcastle – Adelaide Under 2,75 @ 1,87