Lots of interesting matches in J1 this round as well, and it all kicks off with Nagoya vs Avispa which is a 100% must-win for the away-side. Nagoya have picked up 7 points in their last 4 matches and are now just a few points away from a safe place, and have a very good chance at climbing out of the relegation-zone here and will definitely go for the 3 points. Should be massive risk from Avispa at late draw here, so the Over 2,5-line is very interesting.
Kashima vs Omiya looks to be wrongly priced both when it comes to HCP and totals. Kashima averages only 2,50 at home and Omiya are 2,00 away, and when you can get decent odds on Under 3 then it looks like a very good bet. Kashima are made too big favorites as well considering their form in the 2nd stage, and have a small 1×2 on Omiya as well.
Albirex and to some extent also Iwata are both in danger of being relegated now that Nagoya have found back their form. Albirex are in poor form with 4 straight defeats, and can’t understand why they are made favorites here away vs Iwata so I’m backing the home-side.
Kofu – Marinos is another very interesting game, with Marinos in a more or less must-win situation if they want to stay in contention for a top 2 finish.Important game for Kofu as well who are battling against relegation. Kofu 1×2 bet is a given when you get 4,71+ on them, and also backing the Over 2,25 line.
In Shonan vs Reysol only a win is good enough for the home-team, and for Reysol as well it’s mainly 3 points that matters. Over 2,5 line therefore seems golden, and also want to back Reysol for the 3 points with this week’s biggest pre-bet.
Kawasaki are already qualified for the finals, so in their away-match vs Kobe it’s arguably a much more important game for the hosts. They are in great form as well with 5-1-0 on their last 6 matches, and are scoring goals for fun at the moment. Kawasaki have lost 2 out their last 3 away-matches, so I’m taking a rather big 1×2 bet on the home-side here. Also want to back the overs as this match promises tons of goals, but the line is unfortunately too high.
The line is also high on the totals in Hiroshima vs Tokyo, so I’m taking a low under 3 bet there mainly based on value. It’s a friendly though between 2 teams with little to play for, so anything can of course happens.
At last I’m also taking a small 1×2 bet on Vegalta away vs Sagan as the home-side have lost their good form and only won 1 out of their last 5 matches now.
High (7,5 units):
Reysol -0,5 @ 2,07
Medium (5 units):
Kashima – Omiya Under 3 @1,78
Nagoya – Avispa Over 2,5 @ 1,87
Iwata DNB @ 2,17
Kofu – Marinos Over 2,25 @ 2,08
Shonan – Reysol Over 2,5 @ 1,91
Kobe 1×2 @3,26
Hiroshima – Tokyo Under 3 @ 1,76
Small (2,5 units):
Kofu 1×2 @4,71
Small (1,5 units):
Omiya 1×2 @ 6,40
Vegalta 1×2 @5,02